Hey friends, enemies, and people who clicked on this by accident—welcome to my updated, recently remodeled (down-to-the-studs) digital home. If you’ve read my blogs before, nothing has really changed except that the layout and website is much prettier than before. It’s like a totally revamped 50s home that was nice on the inside but looked like crap from the street. Well, now that’s been addressed. But you can still expect the same level of smart-assery (is that even a thing *shrugs*) from me as usual.
Ok… let’s talk about the question that’s been haunting every group chat, family dinner, and TikTok comment section:
“Should I sell before the market crashes?”
First of All, Take a Deep Breath.
Yes, interest rates are high (not historically, but way higher than a few years ago). Yes, inventory has increased and buyer demand is slowing. Yes, the media is doing their best impression of Chicken Little on Adderall. But a “crash”? That’s a strong word. That’s a 2008, banks folding, your neighbor Tom losing three homes and a boat kind of word. And this ain’t that.
Still, let’s play with the idea and explore the thought…
Imagine the Market Did Actually Crash
Home values plummet. Inventory floods the market. Buyers disappear. Your neighbor Karen finally lists her house, only to get ghosted harder than a Tinder date who “forgot their wallet.”
Wouldn’t you wish you’d have sold earlier? When prices were still holding strong? When buyers were still biting?
Yeah, that’s what I thought.
But Wait… Are We Actually Crashing?
No, not likely. I mean we can see how well this post holds up over the next 12-24 months.
We’re seeing a correction, not a collapse. Think of it like your drunk uncle at the summer BBQ trying to do a cartwheel: it’s ugly, a little shaky, but thankfully nobody dies. Prices may flatten. Homes might sit a bit longer. But the Portland market isn’t exactly imploding. Think of it this way, we saw 18%-20+% year-over-year home value appreciation in ’20, ’21, and half of ’22 (before rates jumped). That is crazy and totally unsustainable. Can you imagine paying $500k for a 350sqft studio in Portland right now. We needed the market to cool a bit. Granted it would have been nice had it not been so sudden, but still…
The fundamentals of a healthy real estate market—tight inventory, wage growth, bored millennials sick of renting—are still here. That’s not crash territory. That’s real estate. Markets fluctuate and there are many factors that attribute to its fluctuation.
So…Should You Sell?
Every situation is different and there isn’t a one-size-fits-all answer when it comes to selling your home. However, if you’ve been thinking about selling—whether it’s to upsize, downsize, relocate, or finally escape your HOA’s passive-aggressive newsletters—now is still a pretty decent time. Especially if you’re in the median price range for your submarket (neighborhood, zip code, etc).
You’re selling into a market where:
- Days on market are trending downward. That’s a sign that buyer activity is on the upswing. Some of that is seasonality of the Portland market. But it’s a positive trend.
- Buyers still exist (though they might be slightly more broke and emotionally fragile)
- You can still make a move before any real slowdowns get serious (if there actually is one)
Again, everyone’s situation is different and if you’d like to explore the best options for what your goals are, give me a call. I’m the guy who will give it to you straight and if I don’t think it’s the right time for you to sell, I’ll actually tell you that!
TL;DR: You Can and Should Sell if it Makes Sense for You!
Don’t panic sell. But also, don’t sit on your hands waiting for a unicorn buyer to offer you $100K over asking.
