It’s the Most Wonderful Time of the Year… Unless You’re Trying to Sell Your House.
Well, here we are. The holidays are approaching, the rain has returned to Portland, the days are getting shorter, and the real estate market is moving about as fast as the line at Costco the day before Thanksgiving.
Every year around this time, you’ll see Realtors posting about why the holidays are actually a GREAT time to sell your home. They’ll tell you about motivated buyers, less competition, cozy holiday decorations, and how your house will look absolutely magical with a Christmas tree in the living room.
And sure, there’s some truth to that. But can we cut the bullshit for a minute?
Right now is a pretty shitty time to sell a house in Portland.
There. I said it.
Not exactly the inspirational real estate advice you’re accustomed to seeing on social media, is it?
But here’s the thing. I’ve been doing this long enough to know that telling people what they want to hear isn’t nearly as valuable as telling them what they need to know.
And what sellers need to know right now is that we’re dealing with two things simultaneously: our traditionally slower holiday real estate season and a market that’s already been favoring buyers.
That’s not exactly a winning combination for someone hoping to throw a For Sale sign in the yard and have five offers by Sunday.
But here’s the flip side.
If you’re thinking about BUYING a home right now, this market might be handing you one hell of an opportunity.
Let’s talk about both sides of this equation.
First, Let’s Have a Little Reality Check About the Portland Housing Market
Remember when homes were selling in three days, buyers were waiving inspections, and people were offering $75,000 over asking price just for the privilege of competing with 15 other offers?
Yeah, those days are behind us.
And frankly, thank God for that.
The Portland metro housing market has changed significantly over the past few years. Buyers have become more selective, homes are sitting on the market longer, and sellers are having to work a hell of a lot harder to attract offers.
According to September’s RMLS market report, inventory reached 4.2 months, and the average market time climbed to 68 days.
That doesn’t mean every neighborhood or price range is experiencing the same conditions, and 4.2 months of inventory doesn’t automatically make every segment a textbook buyer’s market. But the negotiating environment has clearly shifted.
Buyers have more choices, more time to make decisions, and considerably more leverage than they did a few years ago.
Now add November and December to the mix.
Historically, these are some of the slower months for real estate activity in the Portland area. People are traveling, spending money on the holidays, dealing with family obligations, and generally not thinking about moving their entire lives across town in the middle of a rainstorm.
So we’ve got a market where buyers already have the upper hand, heading into a season when activity typically slows down even further.
If you’re a seller, that’s something you need to take seriously.
If you’re a buyer?
Well, grab your coffee. We need to talk.
Thinking About Selling? My Advice Might Surprise You.
If you’re only thinking about selling and don’t actually need to move right now, I’d seriously consider waiting.
Yep. A Realtor telling you NOT to list your house.
Somewhere, a real estate sales coach just fell out of their chair.
But I’m not interested in putting your house on the market just to put another sign in someone’s yard. My job is to help you make the best decision for your situation, even if that means telling you to hold off.
Now, waiting until spring doesn’t guarantee you’ll get more money. Nobody knows exactly what interest rates, inventory, or buyer demand will look like a few months from now.
But if you have the flexibility to wait, why not evaluate your options?
Spring typically brings more buyers into the market, longer daylight hours, better weather, and more people actively planning moves.
Of course, it also brings more competing listings. So waiting isn’t automatically the right move either.
The point is that you shouldn’t feel pressured to sell in a difficult market if you don’t have a compelling reason to do so.
Let’s look at your home, your neighborhood, and your financial situation before making that decision.
Because sometimes the smartest real estate move is doing absolutely nothing.
At least for now.
But What If You NEED to Sell Right Now?
Now we’re having a different conversation.
Maybe you’ve accepted a job in another state. Maybe you’re going through a divorce. Maybe you’ve already purchased another home, inherited a property, or simply can’t afford to keep the one you’re in.
Life doesn’t stop happening just because the housing market is inconvenient.
And sometimes waiting until spring isn’t an option.
If that’s your situation, we absolutely can sell your home in this market.
But we’re going to need a plan.
And before we start talking about professional photography, social media advertising, open houses, and all the other things that go into marketing a property, we’re going to have a serious come-to-Jesus conversation about pricing.
Because here’s the uncomfortable truth.
Your house is worth what a qualified buyer is willing to pay for it in today’s market.
Not what your neighbor sold theirs for in 2022.
Not what Zillow says it’s worth.
Not what you spent remodeling the kitchen.
And definitely not what you need to walk away with to make your next purchase work.
I know that sounds harsh, but the market doesn’t care about any of those things.
Buyers are looking at the competition. They’re comparing prices, conditions, locations, and monthly payments. And when they see a home that’s overpriced, they’re usually not rushing to schedule a showing.
They’re scrolling right past it.
Pricing Aggressively Doesn’t Mean Giving Your House Away
I want to make an important distinction here.
When I say we need to price aggressively, I’m not suggesting we throw your house on the market for pennies on the dollar and hope someone takes it off your hands.
I’m talking about positioning your property to compete.
That means studying the homes currently available in your neighborhood, looking at what’s actually selling, examining price reductions, and understanding what buyers are willing to pay.
It also means recognizing that the first couple of weeks on the market are incredibly important.
You don’t want to spend 60 days chasing the market downward because we started $30,000 too high.
I’d much rather have an honest conversation about pricing before we list than have an uncomfortable conversation about why nobody is showing up a month later.
And pricing is only part of the strategy.
We need great photography, compelling marketing, strong online exposure, excellent presentation, and a clear understanding of what makes your home stand out from the competition.
We also need to be prepared to negotiate.
That might mean offering closing cost assistance, helping a buyer buy down their interest rate, making certain repairs, or being flexible with closing dates.
The goal isn’t just to get your house listed. The goal is to get your house SOLD.
And those are two very different things.
Now, If You’re a Buyer, This Is Where Things Get Interesting.
Let’s flip the script.
If you’ve been thinking about buying a home in Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Tigard, Sherwood, or anywhere else in the metro area, I think you should be taking a very serious look at what’s available right now.
Why?
Because you have something buyers haven’t had much of in recent years.
Leverage.
Remember those crazy bidding wars I mentioned earlier?
Imagine being able to tour a house, take your time evaluating it, have a thorough inspection, negotiate repairs, and maybe even get the seller to contribute toward your closing costs.
What a concept, right?
That’s what a more buyer-friendly market can offer.
And when you combine that with the slower holiday season, some sellers may be even more motivated to make a deal.
Especially if their home has been sitting on the market for a while.
Now, not every seller is desperate, and not every listing is going to come with a massive discount.
But there are absolutely opportunities worth exploring.
Don’t Just Negotiate the Price. Negotiate the Entire Deal.
Here’s where I think a lot of buyers leave money on the table.
They focus entirely on getting the seller to reduce the purchase price.
And yes, getting a lower price is fantastic.
But depending on your financing and circumstances, you might benefit even more from negotiating seller concessions.
For example, instead of asking a seller to knock $10,000 off the price, what if we negotiated a $10,000 credit toward your closing costs or an interest rate buydown?
Depending on the loan program, lender requirements, and how the numbers work out, that credit could potentially make a more meaningful difference in your upfront costs or monthly payment.
And in today’s market, some sellers are willing to have those conversations.
We can also negotiate repairs, appliances, closing timelines, and other terms that make the purchase more favorable for you.
The key is understanding what matters most to the seller and using that information to structure an offer that benefits you.
Because sometimes the best deal isn’t necessarily the lowest purchase price.
It’s the deal that puts you in the strongest financial position.
Yeah, I Know. Interest Rates Still Suck.
Let’s address the obvious.
Mortgage interest rates haven’t exactly delivered the dramatic improvements everyone was hoping for.
And I understand why that’s frustrating.
When you look at a mortgage payment today compared with what someone might have paid on the same house a few years ago, the difference can be pretty painful.
But here’s something I think buyers need to consider.
You can potentially negotiate the cost of buying a home today in ways that simply weren’t realistic when everyone was fighting over the same properties.
Seller-paid closing costs, temporary or permanent rate buydowns, and builder incentives can all help make a purchase more affordable.
And speaking of builders, some of the new construction incentives we’ve been seeing around the Portland metro area have been pretty damn impressive.
We’re talking about builders offering below-market financing programs, substantial closing cost credits, and other incentives designed to get homes sold.
Now, those offers vary by builder, community, lender, and availability. Some involve adjustable-rate mortgages or temporary buydowns, so it’s important to understand exactly what you’re getting.
But they’re absolutely worth exploring.
And here’s another thing.
If rates improve down the road, refinancing may become an option, depending on your financial situation and market conditions.
But I would never recommend buying a home today based on the assumption that you’ll definitely be able to refinance later.
You need to be comfortable with the payment you’re committing to now.
If the numbers work today, and we can negotiate a strong deal, then buying now could make a lot of sense.
If they don’t, we keep looking.
It’s really that simple.
Holiday Buyers Have an Advantage, But You Still Need to Be Smart
Here’s where the holiday season becomes particularly interesting for buyers.
Think about the seller who listed their home in September, reduced the price in October, and is now staring down Thanksgiving with their house still sitting on the market.
Maybe they’re perfectly comfortable waiting.
Or maybe they’re getting tired of keeping the house clean for showings, making mortgage payments, and wondering when the damn thing is finally going to sell.
You don’t know until you ask.
And that’s where having an experienced agent who knows how to negotiate becomes incredibly valuable.
We can look at how long the property has been listed, whether there have been price reductions, what similar homes have sold for, and whether the seller has any particular timing considerations.
Then we put together an offer that makes sense.
Maybe that’s a lower purchase price.
Maybe it’s a seller credit toward your interest rate.
Maybe it’s a combination of both.
And maybe we ask for a little more than we think we’re going to get, because why the hell not?
The worst they can do is say no or counteroffer.
Of course, we still need to be reasonable. An aggressive offer should be based on actual market conditions, not just throwing out some ridiculous number and hoping the seller is desperate.
But buyers shouldn’t be afraid to negotiate right now.
This is exactly the kind of market where good negotiation can make a real financial difference.
So, What’s My Advice Heading Into the Holidays?
It’s pretty straightforward.
If you’re thinking about selling but don’t need to, let’s talk about whether waiting makes sense.
I’m not going to pressure you into listing your house in a difficult market just because I want another transaction.
If waiting a few months gives us a better opportunity, I’m perfectly happy to tell you that.
If you NEED to sell, we’re going to approach it aggressively.
That means realistic pricing, exceptional marketing, careful preparation, and a willingness to negotiate when it makes sense.
We’re not going to test the market with some fantasy price and hope for a Christmas miracle.
We’re going to develop a strategy designed to get your home sold.
And if you’re thinking about buying, I think you should be out there looking.
Seriously.
There are sellers who want to make deals. There are builders offering incentives. There are opportunities to negotiate prices, credits, repairs, and financing terms that buyers simply didn’t have when the market was going crazy.
That doesn’t mean every house is a bargain, and it doesn’t mean you should buy something you can’t comfortably afford.
But if you’re financially ready, this is a market worth taking advantage of.
The Bottom Line: It’s Not a Great Market for Everyone. And That’s Okay.
I know Realtors are supposed to be relentlessly optimistic about the housing market.
Every month is apparently a great time to buy AND a great time to sell.
Funny how that works, isn’t it?
But the reality is that different market conditions create different opportunities.
Right now, the Portland housing market is challenging for sellers, especially as we head into the slower holiday season.
And I’m not going to pretend otherwise.
But for buyers who are prepared, qualified, and willing to negotiate, those same conditions can create some pretty incredible opportunities.
That’s why I don’t believe in giving everyone the same advice.
Your situation matters. Your goals matter. Your financial position matters.
And whether you’re buying or selling, you deserve someone who’s going to tell you the truth about the market, even when it’s not necessarily what you want to hear.
So if you’re considering selling, let’s have an honest conversation about what your home is worth and whether now is the right time.
And if you’re considering buying, let’s get out there and see what kind of deal we can put together.
Because the best real estate strategy isn’t about timing the perfect market. It’s about making the smartest move in the market we’re actually in.
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